Let the Flip Flopping Begin: The NFL is waiting for Brett Favre’s Decision Again by Lloyd Vance

Brett Favre’s “Thank You” note to fans on his website has started speculation once again whether he will or will not retire

Immediately after the Minnesota Vikings’ disappointing Championship Round loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion, New Orleans Saints, everyone wanted to know what was Vikings quarterback Brett Favre’s decision on the 2010 NFL Season.

Even after throwing another heartbreaking interception to end another season –  Favre the last 3 seasons while playing for the Packers, NY Jets, and Vikings has ended his year by throwing an interception  – the graybeard wanted to focus more on the fun that he had competing against the Saints with the youngster Vikings.  However it now looks like another offseason and another flip-flopping affair for the “John Wayne” of quarterbacks.

As only he could do, Favre left a thank-you note to his fans on his official Web site, acknowledging their support during his 19th season. Of course there was no exact indication of his future plans.  There were only vague statements like, “Regardless of what the future holds, I want everyone to know that I will cherish the memories of the past year for the rest of my life”.  You could tell from Favre’s message that retirement may have been on his mind again.  But like the last three offseasons, it will be see you in the spring or summer for any decision.

The Vikings have said, via GM Rick Spielman, that they will allow Favre to take his time to decide.  “I think you go ahead and let Brett decide what he wants to do,” Spielman said. “I know the organization, from our ownership, from our coaches and I think from our fans out there, we’d love to have Brett Favre back for another year and see if we can make another run at this.” And who could blame the Vikings for leaving the ball in Favre’s court.

The 2009 NFL Season truly was a bounce-back season for Favre.  There wasn’t even a hint of the worn-down gunslinger from the 2008 season that the New York Jets threw on the scrap heap after Favre threw an NFL-high 22 interceptions with the J-E-T-S losing down the stretch to miss the playoffs.

The 3-time NFL MVP looked like a legitimate candidate for a fourth honor as he led the Vikings to a 12-4 regular season record (second seed in the NFC) and Minnesota won the NFC North title plus came within a 31-28 overtime loss of making the Super Bowl.

Individually, Favre arguably had his best season statistically in his 19-year NFL career.  He completed 68.4% of his passes for 4202 yards, 33 touchdowns, a career-low 7 interceptions, and a 107.2 passer rating.  Those numbers were good enough for Favre to make his 11th Pro Bowl, though he took a pass on the actual game as he recovered from the battering that the Saints delivered to him in the playoffs.

Even though I made a pact a couple of offseasons ago that I would not try to predict what Brett Favre would do.  In this “one” circumstance, I will try to read the tea leaves surrounding this surefire Hall of Famer.  Despite Favre taking a vicious beating at the hands of the Saints in the NFC Championship Game, I still believe that he still has the competitive fire to play.

The Vikings were a drastically improved team last season and should be considered Super Bowl contenders again in 2010.  Plus the team rallied around Favre all season as he made players around him like receiver Greg Lewis better — remember his game-winning catch against the Niners in Week 3.  There also is the little matter of the 40-year old having one-year remaining on his two-year contract with a base 2010 salary of $13 million dollars.

The key to me will be how long the Vikings are willing to wait for an answer.  You have to wonder if they will want to know by the 2010 NFL Draft — scheduled from April 22-24 – because that’s when teams map out their future direction.  The real fun will be, if Favre does indeed finally retire and sticks to it (doubt it).  The Vikings would then have to look to either make a trade (current Eagles QB’s Donovan McNabb or Michael Vick prime targets) or turn over the reins to one of their inconsistent backups, Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels.

Anyway stay tuned for the next installment of “As the Favre Turns”, because this melodrama is not going away anytime soon.

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

2009 NFL Playoffs – Wild Card Round Preview by Lloyd Vance

The 2009 NFL Playoffs – Wild Card Round is here and it is time for teams and players (Arizona Cardinals’ WR Steve Breaston pictured) to make their mark or go home

At times the 2009 NFL Season seemed to have already written its playoff script with the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints, both undefeated for the majority of the season, headed for a collision course at Super Bowl XLIV in South Florida.  But as fate usually does in the National Football League, the Colts and Saints plus other early season favorite, the Minnesota Vikings, have shown towards the end of the regular season that nothing is pre-determined in the world’s best sports league.

I am not saying that none of the top four seeds (Colts, Saints, Vikings, and San Diego Chargers) may not go full throttle through the playoffs and win it all, but I am expecting that this year’s playoffs will be another wide-open affair.  As Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb said, “It’s an exciting time right now, it’s the NFL playoffs!”  There are now 12 teams scratching to survive on the long road to the Super Bowl and there are obstacles everywhere in the toughest single-elimination tournament around. 

“We’re all 0-0 now”, said Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers.  It doesn’t matter how any of the teams got into the playoffs, all that matters is that the remaining teams are in the mix for the biggest prize in pro football.  It has been one wacky NFL season with many exciting storylines and I am sure the excitement will continue in the 2009 “Own the Moment” NFL post-season. 

 Every team has a chance as ten of the twelve teams in the postseason have double-digit wins and for the 14th consecutive season, five or more teams qualified for the playoffs that were not in the postseason the year — six new playoff teams are the Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets, New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, and Cincinnati Bengals.  Anything is possible and hope rightfully abounds in all twelve playoff cities. If the 2009 NFL Regular Season has taught us anything, it showed that “On Any Given Sunday” any team can step-up their level of play to beat any other team in the parity-filled NFL (Remember the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers knocking off the playoff bound Green Bay Packers way back in Week 9). Besides attaining the No. 1 seed in your conference is no guarantee of Super Bowl entry as surprisingly it has been fifteen seasons since the last time two No. 1 seeds faced each other in Super Bowl (1993 season, Buffalo vs. Dallas in Super Bowl XXVIII).

The theme of the 2009 NFL Wild Card Playoff round should be the same as one of my favorite ’70s films, “Let’s Do It Again”.  The film starred African American film icons Bill Cosby and Sidney Poitiere making a killing by prearranging boxing matches with all the marbles riding on a big payday rematch.  The word “rematch” fits perfectly when talking about this year’s Wild Card round as all four games will be rematches with 3 out of 4 being immediate rematches from the regular season’s Week 17.  Since 1990, when the current playoff format was adopted, there have been nine instances when two teams have played in the final week of the regular season and again the next week to start the postseason. The losing team in Week 17 has won five of the nine playoff games. 

Of course having played and beaten a team in the regular season may cause some “familiarity” and a psychological edge in game planning along with dissecting tendencies. But playoff tenants of Strong Quarterback Play (i.e. Taking Care of the Football), Good Attacking Defense, a Balanced Offensive Attack based first in the Run, Sound Special Teams Play, Limiting Penalties/Turnovers, and just plain “Want-to” will be the key factors as to which teams move on to the Divisional round on long treacherous road to the Super Bowl.

Other storylines for Wildcard Weekend include: 

• Third Times a Charm?? – The Dallas Cowboys will host the Philadelphia Eagles on Saturday night after sweeping them in the regular season.  Since 1970, 19 teams have gone 2-0 against an opponent in the regular season and then faced that club in the playoffs.  The sweeping team has won the postseason meeting 12 times (63.2 percent).  Most recently, Pittsburgh beat Baltimore for a third time in last year’s AFC Championship Game.  The last time a team swept an opponent and then lost to them in the playoffs was 2007, when the New York Giants defeated the Cowboys in the Divisional round after Dallas had defeated them twice in the regular season.
• Future Hall of Famer is back in the playoffs –New England quarterback Tom Brady will line up under center for the 18th time in the playoffs when the Patriots face the Ravens on Sunday.  With 46 passing yards, Brady will reach 4,000 in the postseason, a feat accomplished by only five quarterbacks in history.   Brady also led to the Patriots to a perfect 8-0 record in Foxborough this season and has never lost a home playoff game (8-0).  With a win against the Ravens, Brady can become the first quarterback to win his first nine postseason home games in the Super Bowl era.  The Patriots have won 11 consecutive postseason games since 1997.
• Rex Ryan’s J-E-T-S are tough on both sides of the ball —  The New York Jets led the NFL with 172.3 rushing yards per game on offense and allowed an NFL-low 252.3 yards per game on defense.  The Jets became the eighth team since 1970 to lead the NFL in both rushing offense and total defense.  Ryan is trying to become 10th rookie head coach since 1990 to win his playoff debut.
• The Cardinals are back — Last season, the Arizona Cardinals advanced to their first Super Bowl in franchise history.  The Cardinals, who have won back-to-back division titles for the first time since 1974-75, are just the 10th Super Bowl runner-up since 1990 to qualify for the playoffs the following year.
• Undefeated at Home – The New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings both finished the 2009 regular season undefeated at home.  Since 2000, only 15 teams have posted a perfect regular-season record at home.  Of the previous 13 teams, five have gone to the Super Bowl (38.5 percent).
• Belichick trying to climb the postseason wins board — New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has compiled a 15-4 (.789) record in his postseason career.  Belichick ranks fifth all-time with 15 playoff victories, trailing only Pro Football Hall of Famers Tom Landry, Don Shula, Joe Gibbs, and Chuck Noll.

My advice to everyone watching this weekend’s wildcard action is to pay very close attention to the winners as teams advancing from the Wild Card round have won the Super Bowl 6 times including three of the last four.  A prime example of going from the Wild Card to great heights were the 2007 New York Giants, who went from the NFC’s fifth seed to winning the Super Bowl.  The G-Men won three road games and then triumphed in Arizona over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.  Three years ago, the AFC third-seeded Indianapolis accomplished the feat.  And four years ago, the Pittsburgh Steelers became the first sixth seed to win a Super Bowl.

I usually like to look at the hottest teams going into playoff games as favorites and no team is hotter than the San Diego Chargers.  The Chargers enter the postseason with 11 consecutive victories, the NFL’s longest current win streak.  San Diego has clinched the No. 2 seed in the AFC and is tied for the fifth-longest win streak to enter the playoffs since 1970.  Other teams entering the 2009 NFL playoffs on a roll are the Dallas Cowboys (3), NY Jets (2), Green Bay Packers (1), Baltimore Ravens (1),and Minnesota Vikings (1).  Conversely six teams enter the postseason carrying a losing streak led by the suddenly reeling New Orleans Saints (3) – other losing streak teams are the Indianapolis Colts (2), Arizona Cardinals (1), Philadelphia Eagles (1), New England Patriots (1), and Cincinnati Bengals (1).

2009 NFL SEASON – WILD CARD WEEKEND

Saturday, January 9 

AFC:    4:30 PM	New York Jets (9-7) at Cincinnati (10-6) (NBC)
NFC:    8:00 PM	Philadelphia (11-5) at Dallas (11-5) (NBC)

 

Sunday, January 10

AFC:    1:00 PM	Baltimore (9-7) at New England (10-6) (CBS)
NFC:    4:40 PM	Green Bay (11-5) at Arizona (10-6) (FOX)

 

Wild Card Game Previews and Picks to follow

 

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

2009 NFL Season – Week 17 Review by Lloyd Vance

The Dallas Cowboys led by QB Tony Romo dominated the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17 to claim the NFC East title and secure the NFC’s 3rd seed in the playoffs

The curtain closed on the 2009 NFL regular season with a somewhat disappointing Week 17. Though there were some great individual performances (see Game Balls) and teams punching their playoff tickets, only two of Week 17’s sixteen games – all played on Sunday, which was great — were decided by four points or less.  There were also two shutouts and several other lopsided games that caused fans to yearn for the upcoming NFL playoffs to arrive sooner, rather than later. 

I don’t know if it is end of season blues or teams “resting” players for the playoffs, but it is a shame that the 2009 NFL regular season ended with such a whimper.  There has been some talk that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell is actively seeking input from around the league asking “how” everyone can fix the whole playoff teams resting players dilemma.  Goodell said on a CBS broadcast regarding the Resting Players-gate situation, “We are considering a lot of different things. We are talking with the Competition Committee and John Madden’s committee on how you incent people and reward them. I don’t think you can punish them for not playing. The other thing that has to happen is you have to make it clear to the public that you are not going to be playing someone, like we do with our injury reports.”

Though I do like Goodell’s thought of providing an incentive to teams (draft picks??) to play everyone through the NFL’s closing weeks, I don’t know how the league’s Competition Committee and franchises can take away a successful team’s prerogative to get ready for the games that really count.  One big negative to Goodell’s plan may have occurred in Houston, Texas where New England Patriots receiver Wes Welker, league receptions leader with 123 catches, was lost for the playoffs with a devastating knee injury in a “meaningless” game against the Texans.  To New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick’s credit, he said he would still play all of his players the majority of the game, if he had to do it all over again.  I have to agree to with Belichick as players can get hurt in a preseason game or any other situation where there is contact whether it is in practice or a game, so why not play to “win” in the NFL’s closing weeks.  Kudos should go out to the Indianapolis Colts for playing QB Peyton Manning, TE Dallas Clark, WR Reggie Wayne and others in snowy Buffalo, so the veterans could achieve certain milestones.  The move was a far cry from the Colts give-up to the NY Jets in Week 16.

Despite some uninspired play by some teams in Week 17, we did finally find out which teams are going to the “Big Dance”.  The AFC’s last two wildcard spots were claimed by the New York Jets and Baltimore Ravens plus a sometimes clouded playoff picture for the entire league including division titles was finally sorted out. The regular season marked the end of 20 team’s dreams of moving on, but now the real fun starts for teams holding a playoff ticket.  There are now 12 teams (AFC — Colts, Chargers, Patriots, Bengals, Ravens, and Jets; NFC — Saints, Vikings, Cowboys, Cardinals, Packers, and Eagles) who will attempt to live-up to the 2009 NFL’s moniker of “Own the Moment” by making Super Bowl XLIV in Miami, Florida. 

In looking at the NFL’s standings and playoff picture after Week 17, change once again is definitely in the air around the league.  For the 14th consecutive season, five or more teams qualified for the playoffs that were not in the postseason the year before.  This year, the six new playoff teams are the Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets, New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, and Cincinnati Bengals.  Also the 2009 NFL regular season produced five new division winners (Indianapolis, Dallas, New England, New Orleans, and Cincinnati).

Before we move on to the ensuing playoff madness starting with a very interesting wildcard round – three rematches of Week 17 lopsided games including two at the same venue — let’s take a look at the final regular season week of the 2009 NFL season.

Some tidbits and news from Week 17 include:

Teams stepping it up to make the playoffs — With their season’s on the line, the Baltimore Ravens and NY Jets had the wherewithal to “Seize the Day” and claim 2009 playoff berths. 

• Ravens run all over the Raiders into the playoffs — Everyone knew going into Week 17 that despite stumbling in Pittsburgh the week before that the Ravens could “Win and Get in”.  The up-and-down Ravens, who always seemed to let penalties and inconsistent play stop them throughout 2009, needed to play inspired against the Oakland Raiders in their home stadium.  Before the game, veteran linebacker Ray Lewis delivered an inspiring speech that drove the Ravens to a tough 21-13 win over the Raiders.  “Ray was unbelievable,” Ravens head coach John Harbaugh said of the 34-year-old linebacker. “When he spoke in here before the game, it was off the charts. The theme was, ‘Be the team we can be. Leave the penalties in their pockets. Hit everything in sight. Don’t let up. Be the Ravens.’  The stars for the Ravens were veteran RB Willis McGahee (see Game Balls) and rookie LB Dannell Ellerbe (returned an interception deep into Raiders territory).  Once the Raven knocked Raiders starter Charlie Frye (ankle) out of the game, inconsistent backup JaMarcus Russell was no threat.  The Ravens clinched a wildcard berth by also running the ball to the tune of 240 yards with an amazing 6.9 yards per carry average.  Next up is the beat-up New England Patriots who should be fearful of the dangerous Ravens.
• The NY Jets take care of business on Sunday Night Football – After enduring a week of “gift wins” talk, the Jets went out in Sunday’s last game and blew the doors off the Cincinnati Bengals 37-0.  The NY Jets clinched their first playoff berth since 2006 and made rookie head coach Rex Ryan the 2nd NY Jets ‘ head coach to make the playoffs in his first season – joined Herman Edwards.  Despite a non-passing day by starter Mark Sanchez  (8/16 for 63 YDS), the NY Jets ground up the Bengals by playing tough defense (Ranked #1 in the NFL) and running the ball. Behind Wildcat QB Brad Smith (see Game Balls) and RB Thomas Jones (78 yards and 2 TDs), the Jets had 57 rushing attempts — the second most in franchise history (one shy of the team record set in 1973) —  for 257 rushing yards.   The Jets’ defense also held both Bengals, in particular stars QB Carson Palmer and WR Chad Ochocinco , in check the entire game –1 for 11 on third downs and finished with just 72 net yards on offense. By winning five of their last six games after losing six of their previous seven games, the Jets are now in the playoffs and should be considered dangerous (attacking defense and can run the ball).  These two teams will play again next week in Cincinnati in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.
• The Dallas Cowboys claim the NFC East Crown and look playoff ready – In one of the league’s most anticipated Week 17 games, the NFC East title was on the line in Big “D”.  Unfortunately for Philadelphia Eagles fans only the Cowboys chose to show-up in a dominating 24-0 win that allowed them to claim the NFC East crown – first since 2005.  The key player of the game had to be much-maligned Dallas quarterback Tony Romo, who broke three team single-season passing records — for completions, pass attempts and yards —  in a huge win.  Romo finished with 311 yards and two touchdowns plus was only sacked once.  To show the Cowboys dominance, Dallas had 21 first downs to Philadelphia’s 10 and doubled them in time of possession.  The Cowboys harassed Eagles QB Donovan McNabb all-day as the Eagles failed to score and had their 6-game winning streak snapped.  In the end, Dallas Cowboys head coach and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips had to be happy of his team’s defensive effort — allowed 37 points in their last four games and became the first defense to post back-to-back shutouts since 2000. The Cowboys have now won 3 games in a row, including knocking off playoff teams the Saints and Eagles.   Dallas also won their regular-season finale for the first time since 1999 and swept the Eagles for the first time since 1999.  The Cowboys and Eagles will face each other again in the first round of the playoffs, right back at Jerry Jones’ billion-dollar Cowboys Stadium.

The St. Louis Rams claim the top stop in the 2010 NFL Draft — For a little while it looked the like the Rams didn’t want the top spot as they hung tough with the Niners.  But in the end, the Rams’ 28-6 loss to San Francisco assured them of the first overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft.  It will be the 3^rd year in a row that the Rams have picked either 1^st or 2^nd in the draft (OT Jason Smith – 2009 and DE Chris Long – 2008), but this time they will be the first ones on the clock.  I am sure their prize will be dominating Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who some are comparing to former Cardinals Pro Bowl player Eric Swann in his prime.

Black Monday is Here – The Monday after the regular season ends typically is not a good day for underperforming head coaches, assistant coaches, general managers, and front office types.  Most teams don’t like to make job security decisions in-season so on “Black Monday” walking papers are given so teams can get ready for the upcoming draft.  Even though there are some uncertain CBA times around the NFL given the threat of an uncapped year in 2010 and possible owner’s lockout in 2011, some on the hot seat head coaches will be getting their pink slips on “Black Monday”.  Already new Redskins GM Bruce Allen has told head coach Jim Zorn his days as Washington’s head coach are numbered – you can insert Mike Shanahan by the end of the week.  And Buffalo interim head coach Perry Fewell is sure to be pushed aside for a bigger name (Bill Cowher??) plus there are sure to be other changes to follow.  Some other head coach who may not return for the 2010 are Cleveland’s Eric Mangini (new GM Mike Holmgren evaluating and it doesn’t look good);Oakland’s Tom Cable (appears to be done, but who wants the Raiders job anyway); Carolina’s John Fox (despite an 8-8 finish, no extension after 2010 yet); Chicago’s Lovie Smith (owed over $11Million the next two years), Jacksonville’s Jack Del Rio (team lost four straight to end the season); Tampa Bay’s Raheem Morris (young coach only produced two wins); Texans Gary Kubiak (After the franchise’s first winning season, got a vote of confidence…but you never know); and Dallas’ Wade Phillips (needs a playoff win to probably be safe).

Back-to-Back winning seasons for Atlanta – By virtue of their 20-10 win over the Bucs, for the first time in the Falcon’s 44-year history they have posted back-to-back winning seasons.  Not that 9-7 is as good as last year’s 10-6 mark and their wildcard berth, but at least the Falcons fought through injuries to QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner to post a winning season.

Denver joins some not so elite company —  Sorry rookie head coach Josh McDaniels, but the Denver Broncos (8-8) became just the third team since the 1970 merger to miss the playoffs after starting 6-0. The Broncos implosion was similar to the 1978 Washington Redskins and 2003 Minnesota Vikings.

Milestones were aplenty in Week 17

• This season, 10 quarterbacks each passed for at least 4,000 yards, which is the most in a single season in NFL history – Texans’ Matt Schaub (4,770), Colts’ Peyton Manning (4,500), Cowboys’ Tony Romo (4,483), Packers’ Aaron Rodgers (4,434), Patriots’ Tom Brady (4,398), Saints’ Drew Brees (4,388), Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger (4,328), Chargers’ Philip Rivers (4,254), Vikings’ Brett Favre (4,202) and NY Giants’ Eli Manning (4,021).  The previous record was seven in 2007. 
• Twelve quarterbacks passed for at least 25 touchdowns this year, which is the most in a single season in NFL history – Brees (34), Favre (33), P. Manning (33), Rodgers (30), Schaub (29), Brady (28), Rivers (28), Bears’ Jay Culter (27), E. Manning (27), Roethlisberger (26), Romo (26) and Cardinals’ Kurt Warner (26). The previous record was 10 in 2007. 
• Tennessee running back Chris Johnson had 154 scrimmage yards (134 rushing, 20 receiving) in the Titans’ 17-13 victory over Seattle.  Johnson totaled 2,509 scrimmage yards this season (2,006 rushing, 503 receiving), surpassing surefire hall of famer Marshall Faulk (2,429 in 1999) for the most yards from scrimmage in a single season in NFL history.  Johnson also led the league in rushing with 2,006 yards and became the sixth player in league history with 2,000 rushing yards in a season.
• The Green Bay Packers improved to 11-5 with a 33-7 victory over Arizona.  The Packers became the first team in NFL history with a 4,000-yard passer (QB Aaron Rodgers), 1,200-yard rusher (RB Ryan Grant) and two 1,000-yard receivers (WRs Donald Driver & Greg Jennings) in consecutive seasons.
• Carolina running back Jonathan Stewart rushed for 125 yards in the Panthers’ 23-10 win against New Orleans.  Stewart (1,133) and DeAngelo (1,117) are the first set of teammates to each rush for 1,100 yards in a single season. 
• Minnesota quarterback Brett Favre threw four touchdowns in the Vikings’ 44-7 win against the New York Giants.  Favre, who passed for 33 touchdowns this season, reached the 30-TD mark for the ninth time in his career, the most in NFL history.  Favre also passed for 316 yards against the Giants to reach the 4,000-yard mark (4,202) for the sixth time in his career, tying him with Hall of Famer Dan Marino for the second-most in NFL history.   
• Houston wide receiver Andre Johnson had 65 receiving yards in the Texans’ 34-27 win against New England.  Johnson, who has led the NFL in receiving with 1,575 yards in 2008 and 1,569 yards in 2009, joined future Hall of Famer Jerry Rice as the only players since 1970 to lead the league in consecutive seasons.  Rice topped the league in back-to-back seasons in1989-90 and led the NFL three years in a row from 1993-95.  Also Johnson and former Colts receiver Marvin Harrison (2001-02) are the only players in NFL history to record at least 1,500 receiving yards in consecutive seasons.
• San Francisco tight end Vernon Davis had a touchdown catch in the 49ers’ 28-6 victory over St. Louis.  Davis, who tied for the NFL lead with 13 touchdown receptions in 2009, tied San Diego Chargers TE Antonio Gates (13 in 2004) for the most TD catches by a tight end in a single-season in NFL history.
• New Orleans finished with 510 points scored in the 2009 regular season to become just the 12th team in NFL history to score 500 points in a season.  The Saints finished sixth on the league’s all-time season scoring list and averaged 31.9 points per game.
• Indianapolis’ Dallas Clark joined Tony Gonzalez as the only tight ends in league history with 100 receptions in one season.
• Bills WR Terrell Owens passed Tim Brown and moved into third on the NFL’s all-time receiving yardage list.

Game Balls

Kansas City Chiefs LB Derrick Johnson – The former University of Texas linebacker was everywhere for the Chiefs, who sent the Broncos home packing for the season with a dominating 44-24 road win.  Johnson picked off Broncos QB Kyle Orton twice, returning both for touchdowns (45 and 60 yards).  For the game, Johnson finished with six tackles, 2 INTs, and 2 TDs.

Honorable Mention

Tennessee Titans RB Chris Johnson – What a game for the NFL’s leading rusher in a close 17-13 win over the Seahawks.  Against a Seahawks defense that had allowed only 100-yard rusher entering the game, Johnson finished with 134 yards and two touchdowns on 36 carries (11th straight 100-yard rushing game). On a 9-yard reception in the second quarter, Titans RB Chris Johnson broke surefire Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk’s 10-year old record for scrimmage yards in a season (2,429). In the third quarter, he broke Earl Campbell’s franchise record of 1,934 rushing yards. In the fourth quarter, he became the sixth player in NFL history to rush for more than 2,000 yards in a single season – finished with 2,006 yards rushing for the season.

Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers – The Cardinals better watch-out next week because Rodgers played unbelievable in a huge win over Arizona.  Brett Favre’s former understudy completed 21 of 26 passes for 235 yards and one touchdown before being pulled early in the fourth quarter. Rodgers finished the season just 24 yards shy of Lynn Dickey’s team record for passing yards in a season (4,458 to 4,434).  He also became only the second quarterback in team history (Bart Starr was the first) to finish a season with a 100-plus passer rating.

Houston Texans safety Bernard Pollard – Pollard was everywhere as the Texans tried in vain to make the playoffs for the first time.  The active linebacker had six tackles plus intercepted Patriots QB Tom Brady and recovered a Fred Taylor fumble for a touchdown in the Texans’ 34-27 win.

Kansas City Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles — It was an unbelievable performance by Charles in a huge win over the Broncos.  The former Texas running back set a Chiefs franchise record with 259 rushing yards and added two touchdowns.  Charles became the first player in NFL history to rush for 1,100 or more yards on less than 200 carries. Charles rushed for 5.9 YPC behind the same offensive line that looked so bad former Chiefs malcontent Larry Johnson (2.7 YPC).

Baltimore Ravens RB Willis McGahee – The veteran back came off the bench to pace the Ravens with 167 yards and three TDs (tied franchise record).  The Ravens piled-up over 240 rushing yards and McGahee had the play of the day on a long run.  Displaying power not seen in a while, on a 77-yard scoring run in the second quarter, the former Miami Hurricanes star threw Raiders safety Hiram Eugene to the ground with a Payton-esque stiff arm then sprinted the rest of the way to the endzone.

Other Honorees: NY Jets WR/QB Brad Smith (the NY Jets’ do-it-all former college quarterback had 92 yards rushing yards including a 32-yard TD run);Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo  (broke three team single-season passing records and finished with 311 yards and two touchdowns in a rout of the Eagles and threw 11 TD’s and 2 INTs in his last six games); Chicago Bears LB Tim Shaw (had 6 special teams tackles and had a forced a fumble/recovery on a kickoff); Green Bay Packers CB Charles Woodson (intercepted Cardinals QB Matt Leinart for his career-high ninth pick of the season and returned it for a 45-yard touchdown); Chargers WR Malcolm Floyd (made the most of his opportunity as the Chargers’ No. 1 wide receiver with Vincent Jackson getting the day off by finishing with a career-high nine catches and 140 yards); Chargers QB Billy Volek (led the Chargers to their 11^th consecutive win by coming back on the Washington Redskins and threw a late touchdown).

Lloyd’s Lackey

The Philadelphia Eagles – In a game where the Eagles had the chance to win the NFC East title and claim the NFC’s #2 seed, the Birds “Mailed It In” and were shutout 24-0 – first shutout loss since Dec. 5, 2005.  Philadelphia Eagles head coach Andy Reid’s team will have to look at some awful film for their preparation for their return match-up with the Cowboys. There were dropped passes, penalties, overthrows, constant quarterback pressure on Eagles QB Donovan McNabb (4 sacks) wasted timeouts, bad interception attempts and missed assignments galore.  The Cowboys had 21 first downs to Philadelphia’s 10 and doubled them in time of possession.  Dallas rushed for 179 yards against the Eagles on just 32 carries for a sparkling 5.6 yards per carry average – only allowed 76 yards on 23 carries in a 20-16 loss in November to Dallas.  The Cowboys swept the Eagles for the first time since 2005.  The Eagles’ 6-game winning streak was snapped and they are now the NFC’s 6th seed and will have to play the confident Cowboys back in Dallas in the wildcard round.  Surprisingly after the blowout loss, McNabb blamed youth for a huge contributing factor in the loss.  “We showed our youth,” McNabb said. “We showed our youth in situations where everyone would begin to look around to see who was going to make the play instead of stepping up and making that play. That’s something that comes with the territory when you have a young group. I think at this time, having discussed it with the guys, everybody understands it.” — Better clean it up Eagles, because next week is a single elimination game and excuses won’t matter.

Other Dishonorees

Cincinnati Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco – After a week of bragging and “Tweeting” that he would show NY Jets CB Darrelle Revis, “How to play the game”, Ocho Stinko never showed up.  The Bengals’ talkative receiver was held to no catches (first time since September 29, 2002, a span of 120 games) and to make matters worse he tweaked his knee in warm-ups after slipping on the cold Meadowlands turf.  It was all roses to Revis after the game as Ochocinco tweeted, “@revis24-hands down u the best in the game, see you n 6 days bruh bruh, try giving out maps next time-its easy to get lost on that island!”

Cincinnati Bengals QB Carson Palmer – Maybe the Bengals should have rested Palmer the whole game.  The former No. 1 over pick finished with career lows in completions (1), yards (0), and passer rating (1.7) in a horrible loss to the NY Jets on Sunday Night Football.

Arizona Cardinals QB Matt Leinart – Another bad passing performance for a player that is looking more like a “flop” every time he takes the field.  Leinart finished with weak passing numbers of 13/21, 96 YDS, and 2 INTs in a blowout loss to the Green Bay Packers.

Oakland Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell – Once he entered the game, the Ravens knew they were going to win.  Russell looked tentative in the pocket as he threw for only 102 passing yards and had a drive-killing interception and lost fumble.

2009 NFL Week 17

Buffalo (6-10) over Indianapolis (14-2), 30-7 

Carolina (8-8) over New Orleans (13-3), 23-10 

Cleveland (5-11) over Jacksonville (7-9), 23-17  

Chicago (7-9) over Detroit (2-14), 37-23 

Houston (9-7) over New England (10-6), 34-27 

Pittsburgh (9-7) over Miami (7-9), 30-24 

Minnesota (12-4) over N.Y. Giants (8-8), 44-7 

San Francisco (8-8) over St. Louis (1-15), 28-6 

Atlanta (9-7) over Tampa Bay (2-14), 20-10 

Dallas (11-5) over Philadelphia (11-5), 24-0 

Green Bay (11-5) over Arizona (10-6), 33-7 

Kansas City (4-12) over Denver (8-8), 44-24 

Baltimore (9-7) over Oakland (5-11), 21-13 

San Diego (13-3) over Washington (4-12), 23-20 

Tennessee (8-8) over Seattle (5-11), 17-13 

N.Y. Jets (9-7) over Cincinnati (10-6), 37-0 

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

2009 NFL Season – Week 17 Rankings by Lloyd Vance

Backup QB Troy Smith and the Baltimore Ravens need a win in Week 17 to secure an AFC playoff spot

The last week of the 2009 NFL regular season will either be a happy or forgettable event for some NFL teams as the New Year rolls in.  Though 10 of the NFL’s 12 coveted playoff berths have been claimed, there are several Week 17 storylines around the two remaining berths plus  the “Who” and the “Where” pieces of the playoff puzzle left to be decided. 

The NFC playoff picture is pretty clear as all six playoff spots have been claimed (New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Arizona Cardinals, and Green Bay Packers) with the Saints as the No. 1 seed, but the other five seeds need to be sorted out.  The AFC side of the ledger is a bit more complicated, though the Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers have clinched the top two seeds, because there are 7 teams vying for the conference’s last two wildcard spots.

In looking at the current NFL standings one last time before the “real” games start, here’s the breakdown: The “Elite” – Colts (14-1), Saints (13-2), Chargers (12-3), Eagles (11-4), Vikings (11-4), and Cardinals (10-5); “In the Playoffs or on the Cusp” — Bengals (10-5),  Packers (10-5) Cowboys (10-5), Patriots (10-5), Ravens (8-7), and Jets (8-7); “Help Needed” teams that need help from others in their conference just to get in the playoffs  — Texans (8-7), Steelers (8-7), Broncos (8-7), Jaguars (7-8) and Dolphins (7-8); and lastly the “Finishing Out the String” teams (See you at the 2010 NFL Draft) – Giants (8-7), Falcons (8-7), Titans (7-8), Niners (7-8), Panthers (7-8), Bears (6-9), Seahawks (5-10), Bills (5-10), Raiders (5-10), Browns (4-11), Redskins (4-11), Chiefs (3-12), Buccaneers (3-12), Lions (2-13), and Rams (1-13)

Now on to the rankings for this week.

1.  Colts (14-1) – The champagne corks were flying for the 1972 Miami Dolphins as the Colts chose to “rest” key players in the second half of a disappointing loss to the “thankful” NY Jets.  I will debate the point all day that the Colts’ management was wrong to rest players, but GM Bill Polian’s crew has stuck to their “Non-Perfection” stance and we will see how the playoffs turnout.  Expect to see more of backup QB Curtis Painter and company as the Colts close out the regular season against the host Buffalo Bills.

2.  Chargers (12-3) – The Chargers won their 10^th game in a row as they thumped the host Tennessee Titans on Christmas Day.  Don’t expect to see head coach Norv Turner to take his foot off the gas when San Diego hosts the Redskins in Week 17 as the Chargers want to go into the playoffs “hot”.

3.  Saints (13-2) – Ought…Oh, the formerly “perfect” Saints appear to be leaking oil as they head to the playoffs.  Though the Saints wrapped up the NFC’s number one seed, they did not look good as they squandered a 17-point lead in a disappointing home overtime loss to the scrappy Tampa Bay Bucs.  Even though the Saints shouldn’t have much to play for against the host Carolina Panthers, expect a strong effort from QB Drew Brees and company.

4.  Eagles (11-4) – Don’t look now, but outside of the San Diego Chargers, the Birds are the hottest team in the NFL.  In another tough close victory, the Eagles put aside Brian Dawkins homecoming to pull-out a win over the reeling Denver Broncos.  Somewhere former Eagles head coaches Dick Vermeil and Buddy Ryan are smiling as it will be Philly vs. Dallas for the NFC East division in Week 17.

5.  Cardinals (10-5) – As the playoffs approach, the Cards are getting better and have a running game.  The 2008 NFL runner-ups looked good in pulling out a tougher than expected NFC West division win over the St. Louis Rams.  With playoff seeding on the line, the Cardinals will host the Green Bay Packers and these two could possibly meet next week in the 1^st round of the playoffs.

6.  Vikings (11-4) – I don’t care what anyone says, the Vikings are not on the right page at the wrong time of the season.  QB Brett Favre and company continued to limp into the playoffs as they lost in overtime to the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football.  With a shot at still claiming the NFC’s #2 seed, if the Eagles lose, expect the Vikings to get back on track by thumping the Giants.

7.  Patriots (10-5) – The Pats showed their veteran pedigree as they won their 3^rd straight game with a drubbing of the reeling Jacksonville Jaguars.  You know Patriots head coach Bill Belichick would like nothing more than putting an end to the Houston Texans’ playoff hopes, so expect to see QB Tom Brady and WR Randy Moss in Week 17.

8. Cowboys (10-5) – The ‘Boys continued to answer the bell in December 2009 as they shutout the crawling home Washington Redskins.  In a signature game, Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips and QB Tony Romo have a chance to wash away a long history of end of season woes by beating the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17 and claiming the NFC East crown.

9.  Bengals (10-5) — The veteran group of head coach Marvin Lewis, QB Carson Palmer, and — dare I say it – Chad Ochocinco willed the Bengals to a win over the Chiefs to claim the AFC North.  With not much to play for by their late Sunday Night Football start, expect the Bengals to “rest” against the NY Jets who they quite possibly will see in the first round of the playoffs.

10. Packers (10-5) – Led by Pro Bowl CB Charles Woodson, the dangerous Packers destroyed the reeling Seattle Seahawks to claim one of the NFC’s wildcard spots.  Expect the Packers to go for a “momentum” win against the Cardinals in Week 17.

11.  Ravens (8-7) – The Ravens lost a tough road game to the Pittsburgh Steelers (dropped passes, touchdowns negate by penalties, and not enough pressure on Big Ben), but they still are in the driver’s seat in the AFC Wildcard race.  Expect to see Ravens head coach John Harbaugh to pull out all of the stops as Baltimore needs to get a win over the host Oakland Raiders to fulfill their playoff hopes.

12.  Steelers (8-7) – You have to wonder how bad the Steelers as kicking themselves for their 5-game losing streak that included losses to the Chiefs and Raiders.  The Steelers kept their flickering playoff hopes alive by winning a thrilling game over the Ravens.  The first order of business for the playoffs is for the Steelers to beat the host Miami Dolphins then hope for some help.

13.  Texans (8-7) – You know the upstart Texans would like nothing more than to end their 8-8 streak and sneak into the playoffs for the first time.  In Week 16, the Texans went on a mission to South Florida and kept their playoff hopes alive while sending the Dolphins closer to next year.  It will be “Put Up or Shut Up” time when the Texans host New England in Week 17, but Houston still will need some help for their first playoffs.

14.  Falcons (8-7) – Too bad QB Matt Ryan was hurt for some earlier crucial games as the Falcons are playing some of the best football in the NFL.  Mike Smith’s team continued their end of season run by thumping the hap-hazard Buffalo Bills.  In a pride game that will mean a winning season, expect Ryan and the Falcons to go all out in Week 17 versus the surging host Tampa Bay Bucs.

15. Jets (8-7) – I know the J-E-T-S are very close to securing one of the AFC’s wildcard berths, but they have a lot of work to do.  After Peyton and his crew handed the Colts’ backups a 5-point lead, it didn’t take long for Rex Ryan’s team to secure Jim Caldwell’s gift victory.  The Jets may get their second “gift” win in a row, on the way to the playoffs, when they face the Bengals who may also be resting players.

16. Giants (8-7) – The G-Men never showed up in a terrible loss to the Carolina Panthers in the Meadowlands’ last game.   It is player evaluation time for GM Jerry Reese and head coach Tom Coughlin as the G-Men travel to Minnesota in Week 17.

17.  Broncos (8-7) – Not even the return of former Eagles veteran safety Brian Dawkins could spur the reeling Broncos to a win in Philly.  Hard to believe after their hot start, the Broncos and energetic head coach Josh McDaniels are on the brink of missing the playoffs.  In order to keep their flagging playoffs hopes alive, the Broncos must first win at home against the Chiefs.

18.  49ers (7-8) – Mike Singlegtary’s team is getting better, but 2010 maybe their season.  The Niners hammered the ready-for-the-draft Detroit Lions. Looking to build something for next year, expect the Niners to try like crazy for (8-8) as they face the 1-win Rams in Week 17.

19.  Panthers (7-8) – Panthers head coach John Fox got the okay to return in 2010, but does he? Too bad Fox took so long to insert QB Matt Moore as the starter, because the youngster looked good again this time in a win over the Giants.  The Panthers will continue to play “spoiler” when they host the suddenly stumbling New Orleans Saints.

20. Titans (7-8) – Not even Santa could wrap-up a win for V.Y and the Titans against the red-hot Chargers on Christmas Day.  With visions of V.Y producing again in 2010, the Titans will look to finish (8-8) when they face the Seattle Seahawks.

21.  Dolphins (7-8) – Week 16’s “Desperation Bowl” against the Houston Texans did not produce a good result for Miami.  The Dolphins will be looking to finish .500 and keep their flickering playoff hopes alive when they face the Steelers in Week 17.

22.  Jaguars (7-8) – The Jags have limped home after being in the AFC Wildcard driver’s seat at (7-5) after 13 weeks.  The  New England Patriots showed no mercy as they pounded the Jags in a deflating loss.  With their playoff hopes on life support, the Jags will try to get a win in Cleveland against the red-hot Browns.

23.  Bears (6-9) – The real “Monsters of the Midway” showed up as the Bears looked like a new team in producing a Monday Night Football overtime win against the Vikings.  Maybe QB Jay Cutler can pull another win out of his magic hat as the Bears face the Detroit Lions in Week 17.

24.  Browns (4-11) – You have to believe that the Browns are really starting to impress new football czar Mike Holmgren as they dominated the Oakland Raiders.  The Browns will try to save head coach Eric Mangini’s job as they host the playoff-hopeful Jacksonville Jaguars.

25.  Raiders (5-10) – Oakland put-up a fight, but the surging Cleveland Browns were too much for them.  Could the Raiders play the role of spoiler for the second year in a row?  The Raiders host the Ravens, who just need to get a win to make the playoffs.

26.  Bills (5-10) – It looks like the Perry Fewell head coaching experiment is about to end as the Falcons bludgeoned the Bills in Week 16.  It will be interesting to see how the Colts’ JV team does in a meaningless Week 17 game in Buffalo.

27.  Seahawks (5-10) – The Hawks’ didn’t even bother to show up at Lambeau in a horrible loss to the playoff hungry Packers.  Expect to see plenty of young players when the Seahawks host the Titans in Week 17.

28.  Redskins (4-11) – After the Redskins were shutout by the Cowboys, new GM Bruce Allen probably cannot wait for Black Monday to fire “Dead Man Walking” head coach Jim Zorn.  Look for the ‘Skins to mail-it-in when they travel across the country to play the red-hot San Diego Chargers.

29.  Buccaneers (3-12) – Head coach Raheem Morris’ team responded to the challenge of facing the host 13-win Saints by beating them in overtime. The Bucs will look to keep fighting and learning when they host the Atlanta Falcons in Week 17.

30.  Chiefs (3-12) – The Bengals pulled out a tough home win over KC to win the AFC North.  With not much else to play for other than stats, the Chiefs travel to Denver for an old-time AFL battle with the Broncos.

31.  Lions (2-13) – The Niners showed no mercy in  thumping the Lions.  In a game that will only have draft slotting implications, the Lions will host the Chicago Bears.

32.  Rams (1-14) – The Cards piled-up more offensive stats in a quality win over the Rams.  It is “Just Lose, Baby” time for the Rams against the Niners so they can claim the first overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft – more than likely Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh.

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

2009 NFL Playoff Picture entering Week 17 by Lloyd Vance

Philadelphia Eagles QB Donovan McNabb and his team need a win over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 17 to claim the NFC’s #2 seed

I love the last week of the NFL season as there are always many different playoff scenarios to figure out on the way to the playoffs. Sure we know 10 of the 12 teams that will be in the playoffs, but the two remaining coveted berths plus the “Who” and the “Where” pieces all need to be put together in Week 17.

For the 14th consecutive NFL season, five or more teams qualified for the playoffs that were not in the postseason the year before (Saints, Bengals, Cowboys, Patriots, and Packers are in with the Broncos, Jets, Texans and Jaguars still having playoff aspirations). 

One thing is for sure expect a wacky ending to the 2009 NFL Season – remember the 2008 Philadelphia Eagles, who were 8-6-1 coming into Week 17, had a myriad of wins and losses come together so they could make the playoffs and they ended up in the NFC Championship Game.  Let’s hope the AFC’s last wildcard spot, being contended for by five or more teams, doesn’t come down to league tiebreaker Number #11, which is a coin flip.

Also it is “Just Lose, Baby” time for the St. Louis Rams as RB Steven Jackson and Company need to lose against the Niners so they can claim the first overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft – more than likely Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh.

NFC East – The Philadelphia Eagles (11-4) lead the Dallas Cowboys (10-5) by 1-game in the division race.  Ironically the Eagles and Cowboys will face-off for the NFC East crown in Week 17 at Jerry Jones’ billion-dollar Cowboys Stadium (4:00 PM EST on FOX).  If the Eagles win they will be NFC East Champs plus there is also the added incentive if the Vikings lose, then the Eagles will be the NFC’s #2 seed.  If the Cowboys win then they will be NFC East Champ by virtue of their head-to-head wins tiebreaker over the Eagles.  Dallas can clinch a first-round bye with a win over the Eagles + MIN loss + ARI loss or tie.  The Giants (8-7) and Redskins (4-11) have already been eliminated from playoff contention.

NFC West — The Arizona Cardinals (10-5) have already clinched their second straight NFC West crown.  But the Cardinals still have incentive when they host the Packers in Week 17 as they still have a slim chance of winning the NFC’s 2nd Seed.  Arizona clinches a first-round bye with a win over the Packers + MIN loss + PHI loss.  The Niners (7-8), Seahawks (5-10), and Rams (1-14) have already been eliminated from playoff contention.

NFC South — The New Orleans Saints (13-2) lost for the second time this season as the Tampa Bay Bucs surprised them by a score of 20-17 in overtime.  But all was not lost as the Vikings’ loss to the Bears on Monday Night Football assured the Saints, the NFC’s #1 playoff seed which brought a bye and home field advantage. Expect the Saints to go for a “momentum” win against the host Carolina Panthers, but if they get a lead QB Drew Brees and other key players could be relegated to the bench.  The Falcons (8-7), Panthers (7-8), and Bucs (2-13) have already been eliminated from playoff contention.  An interesting note from the NFC South (created in 2002) is that in 6 out of 7 NFL seasons including 2009 with the Saints, the division winner was a worst to first team (only exception was the Falcons going from worst to 2nd place in ’08).

NFC North – The Minnesota Vikings (11-4) are the NFC North champs, but they appear to be limping into the playoffs after another loss (36-30 defeat to the Bears in overtime).  With an eye still on winning the NFC’s #2 seed, expect the Vikings to play hard in their regular season finale when they host the NY Giants. Minnesota clinches a first-round bye with a win over the Giants + PHI loss or tie or the extremely unlikely scenario of a Viking tie against the Giants and a Philadelphia loss.  The Green Bay Packers (10-5) have already clinched a wildcard berth, but they are unsure if they will be the NFC’s 5^th or 6^th seed.  The Bears (6-9) and Lions (2-13) have already been eliminated from playoff contention.

AFC East – The New England Patriots (10-5) after three straight wins clinched the AFC East title.   The Patriots still may still put-up a fight against the Houston Texans (8-7) as New England has playoff seeding issues to workout.  The NY Jets (8-7), who were recipients of the Colts resting players in Week 16, have a very good chance of clinching an AFC Wildcard berth.  The NY Jets clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Cincinnati Bengals, who already clinched the AFC North crown and maybe resting QB Carson Palmer and Company.  The Miami Dolphins (7-8) still have a playoff shot too.  Miami clinches a playoff spot a win over the Steelers + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie.  The Buffalo Bills (5-10) have already been eliminated from playoff contention. 

AFC West — The San Diego Chargers (12-3), who have won 10 consecutive games and are the hottest team in the NFL, have already wrapped up the AFC West crown and the AFC’s #2 seed.  Even though there is talk of the Chargers resting some veterans, expect head coach Norv Turner to seek a “momentum” win and get some of his players to key stats when San Diego hosts the Redskins in Week 17. If the Chargers win against the ‘Skins, they will be riding an 11-game win streak plus the Bolts have eliminated the Colts from the playoffs the last 2 years.  The Denver Broncos (8-7) after a glorious 6-0 start have crashed back down to Earth, but they still have a playoff chance.  The Broncos can clinch a playoff berth with a myriad of scenarios: 

   1) A Broncos win over the Chiefs + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie OR

   2) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + PIT loss or tie OR

   3) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + HOU win OR

   4) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie OR

   5) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + HOU win OR

   6) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie OR

   7) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss OR

   8 ) PIT loss + BAL loss + JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss OR

   9) PIT loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss OR

  10) NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

The Raiders (5-10) and Chiefs (3-12) have already been eliminated from playoff contention.

AFC South – With their “rested” 29-15 loss to the NY Jets, the Indianapolis Colts (14-1), in my opinion, gave away their opportunity of being the NFL’s only 19-0 team in history…but that is a debate for another day.  Even though the Colts’ NFL-record 23-game winning streak is over, they still are the AFC South division champs and have clinched AFC home field advantage plus a first-round bye.  To the dismay of many, expect to see the Colts’ JV team against the Buffalo Bills in Week 17. 

The Houston Texans (8-7) are attempting to not only end their 8-8 streak (2007 and 2008), but also trying claim one of the AFC’s wildcard berths.  In order to clinch a playoff spot, the Texans need some help.  

1)       A Texans win over the Patriots + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie OR

2)        HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie OR

3)       HOU win + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

The Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8) after looking very good for a playoff spot after 13 weeks – record of 7-5 at the time – have limped home and need a lot of help just to make the playoffs.

   1) A Jaguars win over the Browns + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + HOU loss OR

   2) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + NYJ loss OR

   3) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss OR

   4) JAC win + PIT loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss OR

   5) JAC win + NYJ loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + BAL loss

The Titans (7-8) have already been eliminated from playoff contention. 

AFC North — The Cincinnati Bengals (10-5) after their Week 16 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, claimed their 2^nd division title under head coach Marvin Lewis (other in 2005).  You can probably expect the Bengals to be resting players by the time they face the NY Jets on NBC Sunday Night football as there may not be any incentive (playoff seeding) for Cincy. 

Another AFC North team that looks to have a good chance to join the Bengals in the playoffs is the Baltimore Ravens (8-7).  All the Ravens need to do to get in the playoffs is to win at Oakland, so they can claim one of the AFC’s two wildcard berths. 

The other AFC North team with playoff dreams is the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7).  The Steelers need a bevy of events to occur just to have a chance to return to the Super Bowl chase.

1) A Pittsburgh win over the Dolphins + HOU loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie OR

2) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + BAL loss or tie OR

3) PIT win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

The Browns (4-11), have won 3 straight games and are dangerous, have already been eliminated from playoff contention.

A great tool for sorting out all of the “What If” scenarios surrounding the 2009 NFL Playoff match-ups can be found on the Yahoo Sports website. 

Week 17

SUN, JAN 3 

Indianapolis at Buffalo 1:00 PM (CBS) 

Jacksonville at Cleveland 1:00 PM (CBS)

Chicago at Detroit 1:00 PM (FOX)  

Atlanta at Tampa Bay 1:00 PM (FOX)  

New Orleans at Carolina 1:00 PM (FOX)  

New England at Houston 1:00 PM (CBS)  

San Francisco at St. Louis 1:00 PM (FOX)  

Pittsburgh at Miami 1:00 PM (CBS)

NY Giants at Minnesota 1:00 PM (FOX)

Green Bay at Arizona 4:15 PM (FOX)

Washington at San Diego 4:15 PM (FOX)

Tennessee at Seattle 4:15 PM (CBS)

Baltimore at Oakland 4:15 PM (CBS) 

Kansas City at Denver 4:15 PM (CBS) 

Philadelphia at Dallas 4:15 PM (FOX) 

Cincinnati at NY Jets 7:35 PM (NBC) 

 

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

Black Monday will be coming soon for NFL head coaches on the Hot Seat by Lloyd Vance

On the “Hot Seat” NFL head coaches like Carolina’s John Fox better not pick up the phone on “Black Monday”

Mark the date of Monday January 4^th down on your calendars.  That date happens to be “Black Monday” around the NFL as many teams will probably pull the plug on their embattled head coaches, front office types, and assistant coaches on the Monday after Week 17.     

I am not sure if the number of new coaches this offseason will reach the 11 new head coaches for the 2009 season, but I am estimating that there could be at least five head coaching changes on the way.  Of course one change will probably be for the Buffalo Bills who currently have “interim” head coach Perry Fewell running the team after firing Dick Jauron in November.

Head Coaches on the Hot Seat include: 

Jim Zorn, Washington Redskins – The former Seattle Seahawks quarterback has been stoic throughout the 2009 season even though he has been basically “Dead Man Walking” for the majority of it.  Zorn was stripped of his play-calling duties in October – given to veteran NFL assistant coach Sherman Lewis – and it was apparent from that point on that petulant owner Daniel Snyder would soon be looking in a new direction.  Though the Redskins (4-9 through 13 games this season) have played tougher in November and December, they still will be remembered for making winners out of formerly winless 2009 teams the Kansas City Chiefs, Carolina Panthers, and Detroit Lions.   Zorn’s overall head coaching record stands at 12-17 and the Redskins since starting 6-2 in 2008 have a record of 6-15 in their last 21 games.  Expect Snyder, who is known for spending money on his team — signed prize free agent DT Albert Haynesworth to 7 year, $100 Million Contract w/ $41 Million guarantee and CB DeAngelo Hall to a six year, $55 million deal ($23 million guaranteed) – to go after a big name former head coach (see Mike Shanahan, Bill Cowher, or someone else) to come in and run his team.  I wonder if Snyder does bring in a new “football man” to run things, what will happened with his loyal minion Vinny Cerato.

Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears — Now that the Bears have their franchise quarterback (Jay Cutler), everything was supposed to be perfect in 2009…wrong.  Another underachieving season (record of 5-8 through 13 games) and Super Bowl XLI seems like a distant memory.  The only thing that could keep Smith around is that he is due around $11M dollars next year.  If Smith is allowed to return by GM Jerry Angelo, then some big changes are coming to his coaching staff.

Eric Mangini, Cleveland Browns – Last week’s big win over the Steelers aside, “Man-genius” has been a disaster in his first season in Cleveland.  From players complaining about “Voluntarily” having to take a bus ride to his summer camp to some veterans overall disinterest, what could go wrong has gone wrong for two-win 2009 Browns.  To make matters worse, the Browns are looking for a new GM/football czar to replace Mangini’s former handpicked GM George Kokonis.

Gary Kubiak, Houston Texans – At a record of (6-7) with only 3 games left, it is looking more likely that the Texans are headed for their 3^rd straight (8-8) finish.  After 4 years in Houston, Kubiak was expected to deliver a playoff team to the former 2002 expansion franchise.  Unfortunately the Texans have been inconsistent once again and several players on their roster have missed long stretches of time with injuries.  With GM Rick Smith looking to be around for another year given the young talent that he has assembled, expect Kubiak to be the “Fall Guy” in Houston.

John Fox, Carolina Panthers – After a great year in 2008, you knew 2009 would be a tough one for the Panthers – Carolina in 15 years in the league has never posted back-to-back winning seasons.  The Panthers are (5-8) with 3 games to go and their roster looks like a MASH unit.  Fox will need to answer to owner Jerry Richardson about what has gone wrong with quarterback Jake Delhomme and a defense that is not producing big plays any longer.  After eight seasons in Charlotte and the team’s Super Bowl appearance long gone (2003), expect the Panthers to move along without Fox.  Did I also mention that former Steelers’ Super Bowl winning head coach Bill Cowher already has established roots in the Carolina area?

Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – It has only been one year for one of the NFL’s youngest head coaches (33), but some people around the league are already saying that Morris maybe in over his head.  Morris fired his former offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski before the 2009 season even started and recently he stripped defensive coordinator Jim Bates of his role, so there is no one else to blame for the Bucs problems.  The Bucs currently have a record of (1-12) and they could possibly not win a game in their remaining 3 games (@SEA, @NO, and ATL).  With the Glazer family looking to get back to the success of the Tony Dungy era, they could be looking in a new direction after the season.

Other head coaches potentially on the Hot Seat:  Dallas Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips (Not known for being the sternest coach with players. And owner Jerry Jones wants to not only make the playoffs, but he also wants to “win” a playoff game for the time since ’96); Oakland Raiders head coach Tom Cable (Off the field troubles and he works for Al Davis…enough said); and Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio (It could be a playoff win or bust after 7 years in Jacksonville);

NFL Head Coaching Candidates

Mike Shanahan — former two-time Super Bowl winner with Denver Broncos

Bill Cowher — Current CBS Analyst and former Steelers’ Super Bowl XL winner

Brian Billick — Current FOX Analyst former Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl winner

Jon Gruden — Current ESPN analyst (signed an extension) and former Bucs’ Super Bowl winner

Marty Schottenheimer — Former head coach in Cleveland, Kansas City, Washington, and San Diego

Jim Haslett –former Saints head coach and UFL head coach

Cincinnati Bengals defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer

New Orleans Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams

Miami Dolphins DB’s Coach Todd Bowles

Minnesota Vikings Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier

Washington Redskins Secondary Coach Jerry Gray

Jets Offensive Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer

Baltimore Ravens Defensive Coordinator Hue Jackson

St. Louis Rams offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur

Montreal Alouettes (CFL) head coach Marc Trestman

Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Jason Garrett

Panthers Asst. head coach and RB’s coach Jim Skipper (former head coach of the SF Demon – XFL)

Denver Broncos defensive coordinator Mike Nolan

Mike Martz — Former Rams head coach and NFL Network Analyst

UFL Coaches:  Jim Fassel (won UFL’s 1^st championship), Dennis Green, and Ted Cotrell

Minnesota Vikings RB’s Coach Eric Bienemy

Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey

New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator Pete Charmichael

Arizona Cardinals assistant head coach/offensive line coach Russ Grimm

Miami Dolphins WR’s Coach Karl Dorrell

San Diego Chargers defensive coordinator Ron Rivera

San Diego Chargers Assistant head coach Rob Chudzinski

Mike Heimerdinger, Titans offensive coordinator

USC head coach Pete Carroll

New Mexico State head coach DeWayne Walker

Iowa head coach Kirk Firentz – former Belichick disciple

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award -winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

The Saints and Colts should continue fighting for perfection by Lloyd Vance

Hopefully the New Orleans Saints (QB Drew Brees pictured) and the Indianapolis Colts will choose to fight for a perfect season rather than resting players down the stretch

In the 90^th season of the National Football League, we are really seeing something incredible happen.  No, I am not talking about Chad Ochocinco’s latest touchdown antic.  What I am referring to is the incredible feat of the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints reaching the 13-0 undefeated mark together.  By virtue of the Colts’ 28-16 win over the Denver Broncos and the Saints’ tough-guy 26-23 win over the scrappy Atlanta Falcons, the two teams have now raised the number of 13-0 teams in league history to seven — joined the 1972 Dolphins, 2007 New England Patriots, 2005 Indianapolis Colts, 1998 Denver Broncos, and 1934 Chicago Bears.  

The Saints and Colts are playing at a level never seen before by two teams in the same season.  How good are the Saints and Colts? Well consider this, the San Diego Chargers (on a 9-game winning streak and 16-0 in December since 2006) are back page news this season because everyone is concentrating on the league’s two unblemished teams. And as the wins for these two franchises keep piling up week after week, you have to ask, “Is there a chance the NFL could have two undefeated 18-0 teams playing in Super Bowl XLIV at Miami, Florida?”

The Saints once again found just enough in their reserve tanks to put away another pesky foe.  Despite having to scratch out a win over the tougher than expected host Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans set a franchise record with their 13^th win of the season.  Riding to the rescue for the Saints when it mattered most was LB Jonathan Vilma, who made two key defensive plays to seal the win, including a tackle on Falcons RB Jason Snelling on fourth down to end Atlanta’s final drive. 

Surprisingly, playing without their offensive engine of QB Matt Ryan (toe) and RB Michael Turner (ankle), the Falcons led by backup quarterback Chris Redman (23-34, 303 yds, 1 TD and 1 INT) were able to move the ball effectively against the Saints defense.  Atlanta at one point near the end of the first quarter held a 6-3 lead, but the Saints continued to be an indomitable team in 2009.  Saints QB Drew Brees (31-40, 296 yards, and 3 TDs) led his team to a 23-9 lead by getting the ball early and often into his offensive speedsters’ hands including scatback Reggie Bush, who showed his explosiveness with 2 receiving touchdowns.   

However the Falcons came to fight this week as their playoff chances were, basically, on the line.  Redman connected with WR Michael Jenkins for a 50 yard touchdown pass late in the third quarter. Then Snelling scored on a short run early in the fourth quarter to tie the game at 23 points. Unfortunately for the short-handed Falcons, the Saints would not be denied. Brees led the Saints’ offense on a 16 play, over 8-minute, 63-yard drive that ended with kicker Garret Hartley’s 38-yard eventual game winning field goal. Vilma took over from there producing a fourth quarter interception and the aforementioned 4^th down key stop to end the Falcons’ hopes.

The Saints have now have scored an NFL-high 466 points with an average of 34.3 points per game average this season.  With three games remaining to be played(DAL, TB, and @CAR), it seems a foregone conclusion that the Saints will be  joining the NFL’s elite 500-points in-one-season club — 1998 Minnesota Vikings (556) , 1999 St. Louis Rams (526), 2000 St. Louis Rams (540), 2001 St. Louis Rams (503) and 2007 New England Patriots (NFL Record 582 points scored). 

The Colts’ win over the Broncos didn’t have close to the amount of “desperation” of the Saints’ win over the Falcons, but it still was a good game. The Colts jumped out to a 21-0 early lead before you knew it as MVP candidate QB Peyton Manning threw three quick touchdown passes.  Despite a game effort by the Broncos, especially WR Brandon Marshall (21 receptions for 200 yards and 2 TD’s), to clawback into the game in the 2^nd half there never really was a hint of anxiety with a veteran Colts’ squad. 

Manning (20-42, 220 yds, 4 TDs, and 3 INTs) helped the Colts wrap up AFC homefield advantage throughout the playoffs by making up for some uncharacteristic interceptions with a great game-sealing drive in the 4^th quarter.  With the Broncos cutting the Colts’ lead to 21-16, Manning led the Colts on a 14-play, 80-yard drive, that ended with a 1-yard touchdown pass to TE Dallas Clark to seal the game at 28-16.

Even though there were not the nail-biting moments of the Saints-Falcons game, what the Colts’ win at Lucas Oil Stadium did have was records being broken everywhere.  With the win, the Colts broke the consecutive wins record with their 22nd straight regular season victory (formerly held by the 2006-2007 New England). With the home victory, the Colts also produced the most team wins (114) in a decade (former record of 113 was formerly held by the San Francisco 49ers from the 1990’s).  There were also NFL individual records broken this Sunday in Indy. 

As Broncos WR Brandon Marshall made an NFL single-game record of 21 receptions (former record of 20 was held by Terrell Owens); Colts TE Dallas Clark broke his own single-season franchise tight end records for receptions (82) and yards (902); and Colts QB Peyton Manning passed Hall of Famer Warren Moon for fourth on the NFL’s yards passing list (49,513 yards to 49,325 yards).

Now that the Colts and Saints have proven that they are in the undefeated “neighborhood” of the 1972 Dolphins, any talk of an undefeated regular season (16-0) and the NFL’s Holy Grail of a perfect season  (19-0) are definitely be on the table.  I know much like an in-progress perfect game in baseball, it may be considered “Taboo” to talk about a team doing the almost impossible of finishing an entire regular season and playoffs undefeated.  But fans and media have started the debate, so it is time to enter the fray. 

Everyone wants to know if the Colts and Saints, even though they have clinched or are going to clinch all playoff merits (division title, first round bye, and home field),  will either rest entering the playoffs or play for “perfection”.  It seems overall that the Colts and Saints will have drastically varying opinions on the topic of whether to go for 19-0.  The relatively young and brash Saints, driven by their high-octane offense, would love nothing more than to go 16-0 and then 19-0 to put their franchise on the map for the right reasons – only 9 winning seasons since entering the NFL in 1967.

After the Saints’ win over the Falcons, Brees said, “It means a lot to us.  These kind of years don’t come around very often.”  While the veteran Colts’ management, who have been here before in 2005, seem content with resting players and using their expected 34-day layoff period from now until their divisional round home playoff game in mid-January to get their entire team rested and prepared for the playoffs. 

Colts President Jim Irsay said after Sunday’s homefield clinching win, “I think obviously you’d love to see two 18-0 teams in the Super Bowl”. He added, “That would be tremendous and unprecedented for the league. But I can only know about us. We’d love to get to 16-0. But the biggest focus is going to be on being prepared for that first playoff game.”  Colts rookie head coach Jim Caldwell seemed to be teetering somewhere between Irsay’s feelings and going for it.  The NFL’s first-time 13-0 rookie head coach said, “We’ll go and take some kind of a [players] poll, but we know where the final decision lies”.  Caldwell added, “We will certainly listen to most of the guys, guys that have been around here. So we’ll have a conference on it or something.”

However it seems that Irsay and Caldwell should really let their players decide about any rest needed.  “I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I’m playing until they tell me I can’t play,” center Jeff Saturday insisted after the Colts’ win.  The Pro Bowl pivot added, “We have a lot we can work on, improve on and get better at. There’s no reason to stop now.”  Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney said of the pursuit of perfection topic, “Me, personally, I love playing, but that’s not my decision to make.”

Despite history not being on the side of the Saints and Colts – of the previous five 13-0 teams only the 1972 Dolphins and 1998 Broncos ended up winning the Super Bowl – I truly believe that the NFL’s last two undefeated teams owe it to themselves and their fans to try attaining “perfection”.  Resting for the playoffs after attaining the #1 seed and securing home field advantage in the postseason doesn’t even guarantee success in the playoffs any longer, so why not go for it.  Since 1990 only 17 of 36 number one seeds in the playoffs have made it to the Super Bowl with only 8 of those teams winning it all.  The last time two No. 1 seeds faced-off was in 1993 for Super Bowl XXVIII with Buffalo vs. Dallas.  Most likely the Saints and Colts will fall short, but why not try and put their names in the record books next to the 1972 Dolphins. 

Sure the recent “sting” of the 2007 New England Patriots going 18-0 only to fall short in the Super Bowl is still out there, but most players want the chance to be immortalized.  Just listen to the words of Hall of Famer and NFL Network Analyst Michael Irvin when he recently said of striving for perfection, “I would turn in all three Super Bowls and my Hall of Fame bust for one undefeated season.”  Those are some serious comments by the Playmaker and I agree 100 percent. 

My stance on the whole attempting to go undefeated vs. resting for the playoffs debate is that winning a Super Bowl is awesome, but going undefeated through an incredible 19-game grind from September through the Super Bowl is ‘epic’.  Think about it the 1972 Dolphins are the only team to reach true perfection in the league’s 90-year history.  Every year the champagne corks fly in South Florida for a reason, because the 1972 Dolphins season was so magical and will forever live in NFL lore.  As my colleague Marlin Briscoe (a receiver on the 1972 Dolphins) once told me, “No matter where I go or what I do, I will always know in 1972 my team was 17-0”.

NFL Network analyst Steve Mariucci said during the 2007 Patriots’ 16-0 regular season run, “I know they want to go 16-0.  They are going to pull their guys only if they have that luxury (of a lead).”  We will see if the Colts and Saints fight all the way through the end of the regular season.  “It’s a great, huge topic for analysis and different opinions,” Colts quarterback Peyton Manning said. “I don’t think there is a right answer. I think whatever plan Coach Caldwell gives us, that will be the right plan because that’s what he decides, and that’s what we’ll carry out. But either way, you’re opening yourself up for second-guessing.” The Saints remaining games are: Dallas (8-5), Tampa (1-12), and @ Carolina (5-8) – combined records of 14-25.  While the Colts remaining games are @ Jacksonville (7-6) – Thursday Night Football, NY Jets (7-6), and @ Buffalo (5-8) – combined record of 19-20.

My “gut” feeling is the Colts will rest players after their game Thursday Night against the Jaguars and the Saints, who have been in some close games lately – will try through all 16 games to chase the 1972 Dolphins’ legacy. 

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

2009 NFL Season – Week 14 Preview by Lloyd Vance

The San Diego Chargers (TE Antonio Gates pictured) are one of many NFL teams making their push toward the playoffs in Week 14

I am calling Week 14 of the 2009 NFL season, “Do or Die Week”, as several “on the bubble” teams can either join the push toward the playoffs or start planning for their off-season this week.  Though the NFL is still full of the “Have’s” (10 teams with 8 wins or more including the league’s two undefeated teams – Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints both 12-0) and the “Have Nots” (8 teams with 4 or less wins, who are now basically spoilers). 

There are still a multidude of teams (14 teams) currently in the league’s parity-laden middle (records ranging from 7-5 to 5-7) who are still are playoff dreaming, even if some are by a thread.  “It’s that time of the year, the last quarter,” said Philadelphia Eagles head coach Andy Reid – just received a 3-year extension.  “If you’re still in the hunt, things get a little faster, guys play a little faster and so on.  That’s the nature of the game.  That’s where we’re at”.  Overall, 26 teams are still mathematically in playoff contention, so let the race for the NFL’s 10 remaining playoff berths continue – Saints and Colts already have claim two of the league’s 12 coveted spots. 

The most important thing in the month of December around the NFL is to keep winning.  Teams that are strong contenders for the playoffs need to keep putting up wins to “Get In”, On-the-bubble teams need to keep winning to survive and the teams already having clinched playoff spots want to stay “Hot” entering the postseason.  “We always look to play our best football in December,” said San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson, who leads the NFL in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns in December since 2000.  “That’s when we want to be at our best.  We focus more in December because we know what’s coming up.”  Tomlinson and his Chargers probably know better than any team in the NFL right now the value of winning in the year’s last month.  Dating back to a 24-21 win at Buffalo on December 3, 2006, the San Diego Chargers have won an NFL-record 15 consecutive games in December.  Prior to the Chargers’ current streak, the record was held by the Dallas Cowboys, who won 13 consecutive December games during a run that spanned from 1968 to 1972.  Tomlinson added, “We seem to finish strong.  We’ve talked about it and really made it one of our mottos.  I think that has a lot to do with our mindsets in December.  We want to play our best football in December going into January”.

Even with the Chargers (9-3) current 8-game winning streak, they still are not at the top of the NFL’s food chain due to the success of the undefeated Saints and Colts, who are reaching new heights in NFL history together.  The two unblemished teams are the first two 12-0 teams in league history to have that record within the same season.  This week, the Colts take on the Denver Broncos in key AFC playoff matchup and several streaks will be on the line for Indy.  The Colts of course will be attempting to extend their 12-0 start plus they will be trying to break a tie with the 2006-08 New England Patriots for the longest streak in NFL history (21 games).  This season the Colts have been resilent to say the least and so far they have overcome a fourth-quarter deficit six times in 2009.  With one more 4th quarter comeback by MVP candidate QB Peyton Manning and the rest of the Colts, Indy will become the first team since the AFL-NFL merger (1970) with seven fourth-quarter comeback wins in one season.  

The Saints — lead the NFL with 440 points scored with an average of 36.6 ppg — also are etching their names on some records too.  With four games to play, they need to score 60 points to join the NFL’s elite 500-points in one season club – 1998 Minnesota Vikings (556) , 1999 St. Louis Rams (526), 2000 St. Louis Rams (540), 2001 St. Louis Rams (503) and 2007 New England Patriots (NFL Record 582 points scored).  However as good as both undefeated teams have been, they better watch their step this week as only five teams have made it to 13-0 in NFL History – 1972 Dolphins, 2007 New England Patriots, 2005 Indianapolis Colts, 1998 Denver Broncos, and 1934 Chicago Bears.  Even with having such outstanding records to this point, nothing is guaranteed for the Saints or Colts as the five 13-0 teams have had varying end of season success.  Only the 1972 Dolphins and 1998 Broncos ended up their 13-0 season starts with an NFL title. 

I think a lot of fans and media are hoping that both the Saints and Colts can ride into Miami, Florida for Super Bowl XLIV with perfect 18-0 records.  But if I have learned anything from my years covering the NFL it is that nothing is predictable about the world’s most popular league.  Since 1990, only 17 of 36 number one seeds in the playoffs have made it to the Super Bowl with only 8 of those teams winning it all.  The last time two No. 1 seeds faced-off was in 1993 for Super Bowl XXVIII with Buffalo vs. Dallas.  There was an interesting factoid from last week that further showed nothing is guaranteed in the NFL.  By virtue of the Saints clinching the NFC South last week, 2009 marks the seventh consecutive season that at least one team has gone from last place to first place in its division from one year to the next — longest streak in NFL history.  Of the 32 teams to go from “worst-to-first” in NFL annals, 15 of them have done so in this decade (2000-2009).  

So right now with 63 regular season games left to be played, I don’t think  anyone has an  idea of who is going to represent the AFC and NFC in the Super Bowl.  It could be the Chargers vs. Saints, Colts vs. Giants, Broncos vs. Eagles, Bengals vs. Cardinals, Colts vs. Vikings, Chargers vs. Cardinals or any of a number of combinations.  But teams right now need to take one game at a time and focus on “successful”  team tenants — Strong Quarterback Play (i.e. Taking Care of the Football), Good Attacking Defense that produces turnovers, a Balanced Offensive Attack based first in the Run, Sound Special Teams Play, Limiting Penalties/Turnovers, and just plain “Want-to” — in looking to qualify for the playoffs.  

This week’s Thursday Night Football game between the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers also showed the unpredictable nature of the NFL — BTW:  I cannot stand games on Thursdays as too often the short week lends to sloppy boring games.  The Steelers came into the game having lost 4 straight games, but surely the 2008 Super Bowl Champs would beat up on the 1-win Cleveland Browns (defense ranked 32^nd overall going into Week 14).  The Steelers had won 12 straight against the Browns, so Thursday Night should have been P-Burgh’s re-entry into the playoff dance.  But hold-up, Wait a minute…as no one told the Browns that they were not supposed to show-up.  On a bitterly cold night (temperatures in the teens with a 20 mph wind that produced subzero wind chills), where you wouldn’t blame Eric Mangini’s team for quitting, the Browns dug deep for a tough 13-6 win that sent the defending champs to their 6^th straight loss — longest losing streak in six years. 

The Browns (2-11) sacked Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger eight times on their way to beating their hated rival in Cleveland for the first time since 2000.  The man of the hour for the Browns was Wildcat QB/WR/KR Josh Cribbs, who rushed for 87 yards out of the wildcat formation, had 104 return yards and caught one pass for 9 yards. Cribbs never let the cold get him down as he badly wanted to beat the Steelers (6-7) for the first time in his career.  The former Kent State dual threat quarterback picked up probably the game’s biggest first down on a tough 14-yard run in the fourth quarter when the Browns were winding the clock.  Of the win and the Steelers’ long ride back to Pittsburgh Cribbs said, “They’re going to hear that bus’ engine all the way back”.  The Steelers are now pretty much on the outside looking in on the playoffs and you can point directly to their 3 recent upset losses to the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns — a combined record of 9-28 – as a reason you can never pencil-in wins in the NFL.

Some key games that will either make or break a team’s playoff hopes include:

Philadelphia Eagles at NY Giants –   In a highly anticipated NFC East black-and-blue game, the Eagles will travel up the turnpike to face the rejuvenated NY Giants on NBC Sunday Night Football.  Here in NFC East country this is the number one game on everyone’s mind. The Giants are looking for payback for the Eagles knocking them out of 2008 playoffs in a disappointing home loss.“This will be a big game,” said New York head coach Tom Coughlin this week.  “It’s a division game, against the Eagles, at this time of year.  December is such a critical time for all the teams in our league.”  The Eagles (8-4 and on a 3-game winning streak) are currently tied with the Dallas Cowboys atop the division, but with thoughts of the Cowboys going in the tank again in December, both the Birds and Giants want to capitalize.  To me, this game is for the NFC East title even though 3 more games will need to be played after this one.  Expect a tough physical games as it should be cold and windy in the Meadowlands at game time.   The biggest key of the game will be the quarterbacks as Eagles QB Donovan McNabb (has won 10 of past 14 starts vs. NYG including the playoffs) and Giants QB Eli Manning (passing numbers: 225-379, 2925 yards, 20 TDs, and 11 INTs) have faced off many times and usually the team that wins is the one with the passer who has made bigger plays.  In the Eagles November win over Giants, McNabb hit explosive player WR DeSean Jackson for a 54-yard touchdown and the game was never the same.  Watch for turnovers as the Eagles are (+12) in turnover ratio (3rd in the NFL) while the Giants have a rating of (-1).  On defense, the Eagles will look for CB Asante Samuel (7 INTs this season) to make a big play and conversely the Giants need to get pressure from their front four led by DE Justin Tuck (G-Men have won 11 in row when he has 1+ sacks).  One of two Eagles streaks will prevail in this game, Philadelphia has thrived in December with a record of 12-3 since 2006.  But the Birds are also (1-7) on Sunday Night Football. 

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons  — With their season on the line, the Falcons maybe facing “Mission Impossible” when the high-flying undefeated New Orleans Saints come to town for a huge NFC South game.  The Saints quite possibly could be the best team in the NFL, but they will need to be on their guard as Atlanta still has some fight left.  The key will be whether the Falcons get back their injured offensive weapons QB Matt Ryan (turf tow) and RB Michael Turner (ankle).  Last week, the Eagles had no problems with the depleted Falcons.  However the Saints are undefeated and the Falcons would like nothing more than to stop their streak and inch back into the NFC wildcard race.  Watch for Saints QB Drew Brees and his track team of pass catchers (Meachem, Henderson, Colston, Moore, Bush, Shockey, and others) to light up the NFL’s 29th rated pass defense.  Plain and simple if struggling back-up QB Chris Redman starts for the Falcons, this game will be a “laugher” for the Saints who are looking to wrap up a 1st round playoff bye  with a win.

Denver Broncos at  Indianapolis Colts —  It is time for the Broncos to show if they are truly a playoff contender as they travel to Indy to face the undefeated Colts.  I love this match-up, because it has a playoff feel to it.  Both teams are making their playoff push and the Broncos (8-4 and have won 2 in a row) want to show they can play with the “Big Boys” in the AFC.  The Colts have so many streaks on the line, but they better be careful as the Broncos still have a good chance of winning the AFC West or claiming one of the AFC’s wildcards.  The match-up I will be most interested in is the battle of two future hall of famers, Colts QB Peyton Manning’s offense versus Broncos safety Brian Dawkins’ defense (NFL’s 2nd ranked pass defense).  Watch for the Broncos to continue running the football with their two-headed monster (rookie Knowshon Moreno and veteran Correll Buckhalter – ran for 199 yards last week) as QB Kyle Orton  (torn ligaments in ankle) is banged-up.

San Diego Chargers at Dallas Cowboys – Simple and plain, the Dallas Cowboys season is on the line.  The Cowboys are sick of everyone talking about a December Swoon (5-9 since QB Tony Romo) so now it is time for them to turn-up the heat in Jerry Jones billion-dollar playground.  Unfortunately for the Cowboys they are playing the red-hot Chargers, who are on an 8-game winning streak and are 15-0 in December going back to 2006.  The key will be whether Romo (392-yard passing last week) and WR Miles Austin can hook-up for some big plays against the Chargers stingy defense led by LB Shawne Merriman.  Also watch for Chargers Pro Bowl QB Philip Rivers throwing the ball against the Cowboys’ 20^th ranked defense.  A final storyline to this game is that Romo has been enlisted to hold for struggling kicker Nick Foulk – remember the last time “butterfingers” held for kicks causing Dallas to lose 21-20 to the Seattle Seahawks in a 2006 Wildcard Game.

Other games of interest

Miami Dolphins at  Jacksonville — In a “Battle for Florida” special, the Jaguars will host the Dolphins and it should be a good one as both teams are making their playoff push.  The Dolphins have shelved the “Wildcat” for QB Chad Henne throwing the ball and the Jags will be looking for a big game from Maurice Jones-Drew aka “Pocket Hercules”.

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots — With the Dolphins and Jets getting dangerously close, the Patriots will need to find their playoff pedigree when they host the Carolina Panthers this week.  The Patriots have lost 3 games in a row and they desperately want to find their swagger back to stay in the lead in the AFC East.  The key will be the Patriots defense stopping the run and getting pressure on Panthers QB Matt Moore (Pats only have 20 sacks this year).  Maybe new daddy Patriots QB Tom Brady and his favorite targets (WR’s Wes Welker and Randy Moss) can get back on track in the bad weather of New England.  Watch for corners Leigh Bodden (Patriots) and Chris Gamble (Panthers) making big plays in this game.

Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings – In a true test that will show the NFL where the Bengals stand in the league’s pecking order, Cincy will hit the road to Metrodome to face the angry Vikings.  Hard to believe, but could this improbable pairing of two soon-to-be divison winners be a preview to Super Bowl XLIV in Miami.  I love the match-up of RB’s Bengals Cedric Benson and the Vikings Adrian Peterson in this game.  Benson is rejuvenated and looks like the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year and Peterson is a workhorse.  Both pass defenses should be tested on the Metrodome’s fast track, so expect the Bengals Chad Ochocinco (What will he do next?) and Vikings WR’s (Percy Harvin, Benard Berrian, and Sidney Rice) to have huge games.  Also watch for the play of Vikings veteran QB Brett Favre, who finally had a bit of a hiccup last week (2 INTs in a loss).  

I also wanted to remind fans to vote for their favorite players as balloting for the 2010 Pro Bowl will conclude soon http://www.nfl.com/probowl/ballot

Week 14 Games

Thursday, December 10

Browns (2-11) over Steelers (6-7), 13-6

Sunday, December 13

New Orleans (12-0) at Atlanta (6-6), 1:00 PM (FOX)

Green Bay (8-4) at Chicago (5-7), 1:00 PM (FOX)  

St. Louis (1-11) at Tennessee (5-7), 1:00 PM (FOX)  

Denver (8-4) at Indianapolis (12-0), 1:00 PM (CBS)  

Buffalo (4-8) at Kansas City (3-9), 1:00 PM (CBS) 

NY Jets (6-6) at Tampa Bay (1-11), 1:00 PM (CBS)  

Miami (6-6) at Jacksonville (7-5), 1:00 PM (CBS)  

Detroit (2-10) at Baltimore (6-6), 1:00 PM (FOX)

Seattle (5-7) at Houston (5-7), 1:00 PM (FOX)  

Cincinnati (9-3) at Minnesota (10-2), 1:00 PM (CBS) 

Carolina (5-7) at New England (7-5), 1:00 PM (FOX)

Washington (3-9) at Oakland (4-8) 4:05 PM (FOX) 

San Diego (9-3) at Dallas (8-4), 4:15 PM (CBS)  

Philadelphia (8-4) at NY Giants (7-5), 8:20 PM (NBC)

Monday, December 14

Arizona (8-4) at San Francisco (5-7), 8:30 PM (ESPN)

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

2009 NFL Division Breakdown after 12 games by Lloyd Vance

The Cincinnati Bengals and head coach Marvin Lewis are poised to claim their first AFC North division title since 2005

Here’s the current division breakdown after Week 13:

A trend that I will be watching as the playoffs draw near is the number of new teams making the playoffs after missing them the prior year.  In 2008, for the 13th consecutive NFL season, five or more teams qualified for the playoffs that were not in the postseason the year before (Arizona, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Minnesota, Miami and Carolina).  This year the Bengals, Saints, Cowboys, Patriots, Packers, Broncos, and Jaguars are all strong contenders to make the playoffs after missing out on them in 2008.

NFC East – The Dallas Cowboys (8-4) are tied with the Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) for the division lead.  Currently the Cowboys own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Eagles by virtue of their 20-16 win in Week 9.  Now is “crunch time” in the NFC East, the Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys are all within 1-game of each other with 4 games to go.  The interesting thing will be if the Cowboys and Eagles continue their current end of season trends — Since 2006, Dallas is 5-9 in December and Philly is 12-3.   The Cowboys’ remaining games are (SD, @NO, @WAS, and PHI); The Eagles’ remaining games are (@NYG, SF, DEN, @DAL); The Giants’ remaining are (PHI, @WAS, CAR, @MIN)

NFC West — The Arizona Cardinals (8-4) have a 3-game lead over the San Francisco 49ers (5-7).  The Cardinals can clinch the NFC West division title with a Week 14 win over the Niners on Monday Night Football.  The Cardinals’ remaining games are (@SF, @DET, STL, and GB)

NFC South — The New Orleans Saints (12-0) have already clinched the NFC South title.  With a win over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 14, the Saints can clinch a first round playoff bye.  New Orleans’ next four games, right now make 16-0 look very possible @ATL, DAL, TB and @CAR)

NFC North – The Minnesota Vikings (10-2) have a 2-game lead over the Packers (8-4), plus they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker after sweeping Green Bay this season.  The Vikings can clinch the NFC North division title with a win over the Bengals and a Packers loss to the Bears.  The Vikes’ remaining games are (CIN, @CAR, @CHI, and NYG)

AFC East – By virtue of their current 2-game losing streak, the New England Patriots (7-5) lead in the division has slipped to 1-game over the Miami Dolphins and NY Jets (both are 6-6).  With New England’s rather easy schedule in their next 4 games (teams with a combined record of 21-27), I would think the Patriots can hang-on for their first division crown since 2007.  The Patriots’ remaining games are (CAR, @BUF, JAC, and @HOU)

AFC West — The San Diego Chargers (9-3) have won 8 games in a row and are currently one of the hottest teams in the NFL.  However the Chargers only have a one-game lead over the Denver Broncos (8-4), who are also playing at a high level.  Look for this division race to go down to the wire.  San Diego’s remaining games are (@DAL, CIN, @TEN, and WAS – combined record of 25-22);  The Broncos’ remaining games are (@IND, OAK, @PHI, KC – two tough road games and two division games)

AFC South – The Indianapolis Colts (12-0) have already clinched the AFC South division crown and equaled the 2006-07 New England Patriots’ NFL record consecutive games winning streak (21) .  With a Week 14 win over the Denver Broncos, the Colts can clinch home field advantage throughout the 2009 playoffs.  With the division already sewn up, it will be interesting to see if Colts’ head coach Jim Caldwell continues former head coach Tony Dungy’s tradition of resting players rather than concentrating on a perfect season.  The Colts’ remaining games are (DEN, @JAC, NYJ and @BUF)

AFC North — The Cincinnati Bengals (9-3) currently have a 3-game lead over the Baltimore Ravens (6-6).  With a win over the Vikings in Week 14, the Bengals can clinch their 2^nd division title under head coach Marvin Lewis (other in 2005).  The Bengals’ remaining games are (@MIN, @SD, KC, and @NYJ)

Other playoff contending teams remaining schedules

ATL (6-6)                NO          @NYJ      BUF         @TB

BAL (6-6)                DET         CHI          @PIT      @OAK

CAR (5-7)               @NE        MIN        @NYG     NO

CHI  (5-7)               GB           @BAL      MIN        @DET

DEN (8-4)               @IND     OAK        @PHI      KC

GB (8-4)                 @CHI      @PIT      SEA          @ARI

HOU (5-7)              SEA          @STL      @MIA     NE

JAC (7-5)                MIA         IND         @NE       @CLE

MIA (6-6)               @JAC      @TEN     HOU        PIT

NYG (7-5)               PHI          @WAS    CAR         @MIN

NYJ (6-6)                @TB        ATL          @IND     CIN

PHI (8-4)                @NYG     SF            DEN         @DAL

PIT (6-7)                                 GB           BAL          @MIA

SEA (5-7)                @HOU    TB            @GB       TEN

SF (5-7)                  ARI          @PHI      DET         @STL

TEN (5-7)                STL          MIA         SD           @SEA

 

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

The Michael Vick Experience returns to the ATL in fine fashion by Lloyd Vance

For the first time since 2006, QB Michael Vick had the Georgia Dome rocking with a strong performance

The Philadelphia Eagles 34-7 shellacking of the Atlanta Falcons became a footnote to bigger story.  No it was not the fact that the Eagles (8-4) are now tied for first place in the NFC East with Dallas Cowboys.  The main storyline that dominated Sunday afternoon’s game was the triumphant return of Eagles backup quarterback Michael Vick to the Georgia Dome.  The trip back to Atlanta had been an emotional one for Vick.  He later admitted to tearing up on the bus ride over to the stadium.  This was the city where he first made his mark in the NFL as the Falcons star billboard player only to fall to tragic lows in 2007 due to his involvement in dogfighting. 

Vick’s fall from grace was swift and when he went to prison for a 23-month period, he not only left behind his family and friends, but also the franchise that stood by him since he first entered the NFL in 2001.  The Falcons owner Arthur Blank had given the keys to the franchise to his pseudo son only to have Vick disappoint him and ultimately causing the team to walk away from their former electrifying player.  While Vick was beginning his prison sentence in late 2007, the Falcons were also a shattered mess.  The 2007 season was one of the worst in Falcons’ history as the team finished with a dismal record of 4-12, their head coach Bobby Petrino quit with only a few games left, and many blamed the duo of Blank and Vick for the overall collapse of the former 2004 NFC Championship contender.  Vick finished his 6-year Falcons’ career with passing numbers of 930-1730, 11505 yards, 71 TDs, 52 INTs, and a 75.7 rating plus a record of 38-28-1 as a starter.

Though the Falcons rebounded in 2008 to make the playoffs under rookie of the year quarterback Matt Ryan, the attention of many in Atlanta still remained with Vick.  The journey of Vick from a jailed dogfighter back to the NFL has been well documented and when the Eagles first signed the former Falcons star in mid-August there was a firestorm of activity on message boards, talk radio, and any other medium associated to fan feedback.  To say the least the Vick signing was polarizing across the country sometimes along racial lines – especially in Atlanta and Philadelphia.  One camp had the former 3-time Pro Bowl player designated as persona-non-grata for the heinous nature of his crimes against dogs while others believed he deserved a second chance after serving his time.  However much like any big head line story, the Eagles signing of Michael Vick eventually faded into the back pages of NFL news after a while.  The majority of fans that had threatened to boycott their beloved Eagles due to the signing of Vick still packed the stands and on the field the former first overall pick in the 2001 NFL Draft had become a “spare” part in the Eagles’ offense.  Vick would come in for a play here or there out of the Eagles version of the Wildcat formation called the “Spread Eagle”.  But other than a big 34-yard run against the San Diego Chargers, No. 7 was relegated to a designed run every so often while mostly watching starter Donovan McNabb from the sidelines.  Vick’s numbers in 9 games – suspended for the first two games — before Sunday were anything, but electrifying (3 of 9 passing for 7 yards and 0 TDs with 15 rushes for 65 yards and no touchdowns).

Even Vick’s return to Atlanta to face the Falcons was considered non- front page news as many figured the former Falcons’ star would play maybe one or two plays as he had done throughout his stint with the Birds.  But fate and a soft spot for a “comeback” story by Eagles head coach Andy Reid stepped in to bring Vick’s name back into the spotlight.  Playing in the Georgia Dome, which was once dubbed “The House that Michael Vick built”, the former 6-year Falcons player was everywhere.  Vick led the Eagles out of the tunnel to start the game, was a designated team captain for the coin toss, and received probably his most playing time of the season.  However when Vick entered the game on the Eagles fifth and seventh plays of their opening possession, he was showered with boos.   But those boos quickly faded in the 3^rd quarter. With the Eagles leading 13-0, Reid re-inserted Vick in the redzone.  The former Falcons’ starter lined up in shotgun formation and after a direct snap, Vick ran into the endzone for a 5-yard jitter-bugging touchdown.  The play was pure “Vick” as he sprinted to his right then sharply cut back to his left then broke a tackle before finally divining into the endzone.  The play led to a thunderous ovation as many fans wearing No. 7 jerseys stood for their former superstar. 

As good as his first touchdown run since Oct 15, 2006 felt, the NFL’s only 1,000-yard rushing quarterback had to feel even better later on.  With the game well in-hand, Vick showed everyone that he still has plenty of juice left in his rocket left arm as he fired a 43-yard completion to receiver Reggie Brown.  Then in the redzone for the second time, the “Michael Vick Experience” was back as he sprinted out to his left then lobbed a pass back to the right to wide-open TE Brent Celek in the endzone.  The dome’s roof shook again as indeed the prodigal son had returned home.  Vick finished the day with numbers 2 of 2 passing for 48 yards and 1 TD plus 4 rushes for 17 yards with 1 TD.  Not bad for a “spare part” and there were even chants of “We want Vick! We want Vick!” from his former home crowd in the fourth quarter after his satisfying day was done.  Vick said of the fans cheers for him, “It was as loud as it gets in the Dome, I heard the chants all through the stadium and it sent chills down my spine. They were just letting me know that people still appreciate what I’ve done.”

It was easy to see the pure joy that Vick felt playing back in the ATL.  After the game Eagles starter McNabb said of Vick’s fine performance in his return, “You were seeing a guy in his element.  I think he was just relishing the moment.”  After spending a larger amount of time giving on-field interviews and reflecting,   Vick in his post-game press conference said “It couldn’t have happened at a better time, I want to become one of the top quarterbacks in this league again.”

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award -winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)